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Jules Yim | 芊文's avatar

After spending 15 days in China (Shanghai and Chengdu) after an absence of 18 years, while my body was entranced and absorbed in its physical environment and my soul nourished by friends old and new, my mind was… discombobulated, questioning a lot about what I thought I knew about empire, autarkey, networking, and scale. The way I can see myself in your journey and descriptions… freaky! I’ll chalk it down to being Singaporean too and with an adjacency to the institutions we are both familiar with.

Venkatesh Rao's avatar

So I think you're both misscoping and underestimating the protocol world reductively as the decentralized blockchainy periphery and network-statey larps. Much of what you're attributing to empire is actually protocol. Empire proper presumes emperors, and the history of the last 1000 years is the steady decline and retreat of both. Vast empires broke up at the tail end of the colonial era, and emperors slowly retreated as the rule of law constrained them more and more.

Trump may be called a "bad emperor" but his authority pales in comparison to what imperial power actually looked like pre the era of revolutions 1848 etc. He wields more absolute power by virtue of there being more absolute power to wield, thanks to technology, but in relative terms, he has much less share of available power.

Xi might have more relative power than Trump, but his power too pales in comparison to historic emperors I think. And analyzed properly, both late-stage US and early-stage China "empires" are much more protocolish than their formal structures suggest. Even Trump's America has to chafe against the reluctance of NATO and other alliance problems to say "how high" when he says "jump."

The rules based international order was clearly protocolish, and even though Mark Carney may have declared it dead, it's actually pretty alive and load-bearing. I think the right way to analyze things is to view protocolishness as an embodied quality, not as a "type of guy" meme inventory. It's not a protocol because it checks off a list of items like formal decentralization, use of encryption etc. Or to look at it another way, Farrell and Newman called American an _underground_ empire, not a plain one. The fact that it had to wield power and influence stealthily rather than overtly already indicates the degree to which the "message of the medium" of protocolish infrastructures like payment networks or the internet reshapes the will-to-power of hegemons individual and state. Ditto China's BRI.

Understood that way, "protocol" is actually a post-end-of-history permaweird state that is both natural and inevitable because the technological environment simply does not allow as much control and autocratic governance as it used to. And protocols are not necessarily archipelagic. That's just the easy to understand archetypes. Protocols end up mirroring natural topographies, and represent some sort of minimal distortion of that by coercive power. What you're calling "empire" I think can be modeled as a "coercive power surplus" -- what can China or the US make their spheres of influence do that is not natural to the topography of that sphere of influence? Do they enjoy some sort of centralization premium?

Protocols, understood in their full-scope way are not precious little marginal larps, but the ascending planetarity. Obscured by imperial larps that are thin theatrical fictions modeled on nostalgic reactionary sentiment rather than real power. Russia and the US have already learned that in Ukraine and Iran. China will learn that too, soon enough.

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